US/Canada Relations During Donald Trump's Presidency

Since Donald Trump was elected as president of the United States in 2016, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has had to transition Canada out of its role as “America’s side-kick” and take initiative to subdue Trump’s chaotic behavior and America’s rising favorable disposition to nativist populism. Many world leaders have taken to condemning Trump and his isolationist policies, but Trudeau and his team were quick to learn that the easiest way to become a foe of Donald Trump was to criticize him. Instead, Trudeau has been very meticulous in his dealings with the U.S. president. When Trump was elected Trudeau created a new sector of his government dedicated to managing relations with Washington and even enlisted the help of conservatives whose voices were known to carry weight in Washington to help pacify the radical ideology being perpetrated by the president. Canada has long been more concerned with trade relations with the U.S. than has been the other way around, since 76% of Canadian exports go to the U.S. but only 18% of U.S. exports make their way to Canada. When Trump threatened to leave the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Canada was quick to emphasize the economic favorability of the deal for America. However, Trump’s “America First” mentality urged Canada and Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA to avoid abandonment by the U.S., resulting in a new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump’s erratic behavior towards foreign policy and trade agreements has unexpectedly encouraged Canada to take a more independent role to make up for the recent shortcomings of its southern ally.

Donald Trump’s hostile approach to foreign policy and interactions with world leaders has left foreign nations wary of his leadership. In an apparent show of dominance, when Trump greets world leaders, he often does so with an aggressive handshake, yanking the other party toward him. There was another instance where, at a NATO Summit in 2017, Trump appeared to shove the prime minister of Montenegro out of the way in another outward act of dominance. Additionally, Trump has taken harsh tones with U.S. allies who have disagreed with him while also seemingly praising and legitimizing foreign dictators and strongmen such as Kim Jong-un of North Korea and President Erdogan of Turkey. However, upon Trudeau’s first meeting with Trump he earned praise for maintaining a firm stance while shaking Trump’s hand. Although Trudeau has been criticized for not denouncing Trump and his policies at times, it can be argued that Trudeau’s subtle pushbacks have been just as effective, if not more so, at containing Trump’s fitful tendencies. This seemingly mild show of resistance gives us insight into Trudeau’s means of navigating foreign relations with an unruly leader such as Donald Trump. Historically, Canada has surpassed the United States in being more socially and economically liberal, but, nevertheless, Canada has centered much of its foreign policy around appeasing the United States. While that is still somewhat the case today, with the type of inconsistent governance Donald Trump exhibited, Canada has had to expand beyond its traditionally multilateralist policies to account for the unreliability of the U.S. president in order to maintain Canadian and international stability.

Former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney once described free trade with the United States as similar to “… sleeping with an elephant. It’s terrific until the elephant twitches, and if the elephant rolls over, you are a dead man.” (Kay, 2017) The establishment of the Bretton-Woods Agreement designated the U.S. dollar as the standard reserve for currency in the international system, ever since the United States has reigned as the economic hegemon. This designation gave the United States the authority to shape the global economy and as a result, even in a post-Bretton-Woods system, the U.S. still maintains economic authority through the implementation of a floating exchange rate, which allows the U.S. to alter the value of it’s currency based on its exchange rate with other nations. As the world’s leading economic authority, the United States wields a certain amount of power over other nations, especially as the world has become more economically interdependent. Trading partnerships such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), soon to be replaced with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), serve to eliminate trade barriers between neighboring countries and to increase the competitiveness of regional markets. Since the signing of the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) in 1987, the United States has been Canada’s leading trading partner, with 76% of Canadian exports going to the U.S. and 18% of American exports going to Canada. Canada and the United States are generally considered to be very similar, with significant cultural overlap contributing to the high volume of trade between the two nations. During Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign for president he was often critical of NAFTA and vowed to eliminate or withdraw from it if he assumed office. Trudeau was quick to respond to Trump’s threat when Trump took office in 2017, urging him to consider the consequences of abandoning the agreement. However, it is known that Trump has told an unprecedented amount of lies since his inauguration. Politifact has rated 71% of statements made by Trump while in office to have a varying degree of falsity. In comparison, during Obama’s two terms only 25% of his statements were rated as having some degree of falseness. Because of this, world leaders now prescribe a certain amount of skepticism to statements or promises made by the President and attribute his threats to personal fickleness rather than genuine concern for American interests. Nevertheless, world leaders still recognize the United States as a force to be reckoned with regardless of the perceptions of its leader.

Nations such as France and Germany have condemned Trump over various policies while Canada has maintained an arms-length distance, taking more of a carrot-and-stick approach to foreign policy with the United States. Trudeau recognizes the need to maintain relations with the U.S., but also seems to understand Trump’s short temper when it comes to criticism by only denouncing Trump’s actions when necessary, such as when Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord in 2017. Recently, Trudeau has been on the receiving end of Trump’s wrath when a hot mic picked up a conversation between Trudeau and other world leaders at a reception for the 2019 NATO Summit. The leaked video showed Trudeau criticizing Trump, although not mentioned by name, for taking an unexpected press conference, where his comments made his staff squirm. Upon learning of the video, Trump left the summit early and referred to Trudeau as “two-faced,” before adding “he’s a nice guy.” Even though both parties recognize that ties cannot be severed over petty comments, the exchange shows the impulsiveness of Trump’s decisions when criticized. Trump’s erratic behavior undermines his reliability as the leader of the most powerful country in the world.

Prior to the NATO summit, Trump accused nations of not upholding their end of the alliance by not meeting NATO’s standards of spending at least 2% of total GDP on defense. Because of this, Trump views NATO as a baseless alliance and threatens to withdraw the U.S., raising concern amongst our allies that Trump could completely ascribe to isolationist policies if he is reelected. When Trump threatened abandoning the NAFTA agreement, Trudeau urged him to reconsider. Trump maintained that unless the treaty was renegotiated to better fit his “America First” ideology then the U.S. would not remain. With Trudeau in a difficult position, he was forced to renegotiate the NAFTA deal, resulting in the new USMCA treaty that’s been regarded as a win for all parties. Trump has been an avid critic of NAFTA and NATO and has threatened to pull out of both agreements without considering the repercussions. Trump’s unrelenting “America First” attitude has undoubtedly destabilized international foreign policy in recent years as he has shown an unwillingness to compromise, increasing tensions with our closest allies as they navigate negotiating with an unpredictable ruler. Unlike other nations, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has taken to maintaining a cordial relationship with Trump while recognizing his country’s primary concern is preserving a healthy diplomatic relationship with the United States.

Since Trump announced his campaign for presidency he has been surrounded by controversy. A month before his election it was revealed that he arranged for hush money payment to conceal an affair. After his inauguration the Department of Justice appointed a Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference and collusion in the 2016 election. Now Trump faces impeachment for extorting a foreign government for political gains. Every administration has had to deal with its fair share of scandals, but none as frequent or numerous as the Trump administration. Trump’s unorthodox methods have raised concerns about his respect for the office of the presidency and his integrity as the leader of the most powerful nation in the world. Coupled with his seeming lack of respect for trade and military alliances, it is reasonable to question his political agenda while he’s in office. Trump’s promise to create an American autarky has not resonated well with American allies, especially Canada which relies heavily on the U.S. market. Canada, along with our other allies, recognize the need for interdependence in a world that has never been more connected. Trump seemingly recognizes this need as nothing more than American allies free-loading off the American economy with the U.S. receiving little to nothing in return. As a result, Trump threatens enacting protectionist trade policies in order to preserve his “America First” mentality. However, Trump’s attempts at protectionism have had adverse effects. For example, his trade war with China—intended to boost American agriculture—has actually inflicted terrible losses on American farmers. Trudeau, knowing that a trade war with the United States would result in more loss than gain, agreed to renegotiate the NAFTA Agreement when Trump threatened to pull out.

Trump’s lack of respect for other world leaders and the rule of law is evident not only in his body language, but in his rhetoric. While on the campaign trail Trump bragged that he could shoot somebody in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose a single supporter. His boast was not entirely unfounded as there has been a pattern of Trump getting his way despite the most repugnant behavior that, if it were anybody else, would result in ostracization from the social and political sphere. Nevertheless, Trump has maintained a presence, earning praise for his “tough” means of getting things done. When Trudeau matched Trump’s aggressive handshake upon their first meeting he gained newfound respect as he had long been revered as nothing more than a young prime minister of a country with a reputation for bending at the will of its southern neighbor. Trump’s favorable disposition to isolationist foreign policy is not entirely unexpected. Throughout his term has President he has received criticism for praising authoritarian rulers, such as Vladimir Putin of Russia and Kim Jong-un of North Korea, for their “tough” demeanors. Trump’s appraisal of foreign dictators and staunch pro-American ideals have undoubtedly led to the rise of nationalist sentiments in America in the years since Trump took office. Historically, Canada has, in large part, adopted American populism. However, as a more socially liberal country than America, it’s not surprising that nationalist sentiments have not gained traction in Canada. With nationalism on the rise in America it also isn’t surprising that Trump favors nativist policies or that Canada would oppose those policies. America’s adoption of nativist policies would essentially isolate Canada, as well as most other foreign nations, from the American market, and since Canada heavily relies on the American market, being cut off would devastate the Canadian economy. Realizing this, Trudeau has focused the majority of his foreign policy around appeasing the United States while also trying to avoid causing economic ruin for Canada.

President Trump’s aggressive “America First” agenda has put a strain on U.S./Canada relations in the years since Trump’s election. It’s evident that Trump has chosen a realist approach when considering foreign policy as it’s abundantly clear that his main priority is maximizing the gains of the United States with little consideration for other nations. On the other hand, Prime Minister Trudeau adopts the liberalist approach as his agenda focuses on the ultimate well-being of Canada by preserving an economic relationship with the United States. Trump’s hostile approach to foreign policy is also evident in his interactions with world leaders that have left nations wary of Trump’s intentions while in office, fearing that he might abandon long-standing alliances. Trudeau’s unique way of subduing the unpredictability of Trump has helped to stabilize the international political economy and has given Canada the opportunity to adopt a more unilateralist foreign policy to account for the recent shortcomings of its long-time partner in the age of Trump.